The Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns meet on Sunday, November 23, 2025, at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, in a game that feels less like a matchup between two struggling teams and more like a turning point for a generation. Both sit at 2-8, both on losing streaks, and both desperate for a win that might salvage their seasons. But the real story? Shedeur Sanders, the 21-year-old rookie quarterback from Colorado, making his first NFL start under the bright lights of a nationally televised game. If he wins, he’ll break a 30-year curse. If he loses? He’ll extend it.
History on the Line for Shedeur Sanders
Shedeur Sanders isn’t just stepping into the spotlight—he’s stepping into a legacy of futility. Since Eric Zeier won his debut in 1995, no Browns rookie quarterback has ever won his first start. Seventeen straight losses. Seventeen straight chances squandered. Sanders, son of Colorado head coach Deion Sanders, made his NFL debut last week against the Ravens, completing just 5 of 16 passes, with a -35% completion percentage over expectation and going 0-for-8 against the blitz. ESPN’s analytics paint a brutal picture: he was under pressure on every single dropback. But here’s the twist—he’s still starting. The Browns, with a passing game that’s essentially nonfunctional, have no other option. And maybe, just maybe, that desperation is exactly what he needs.
Geno Smith vs. Myles Garrett: The Real Battle
While everyone’s watching Sanders, the real chess match is between Geno Smith and Myles Garrett. Smith, 34, is the definition of a professional quarterback—steady, smart, and surgically precise when protected. But the Raiders’ offensive line? It’s a mess. In their last game, they allowed four sacks and 16 pressures, with running backs averaging a paltry 2.3 yards per carry. Garrett, meanwhile, has been a force over the last three weeks, racking up 4.5 sacks and consistently collapsing the pocket. "He’s got speed, he’s got power, and he’s very disruptive," Smith said in his pregame press conference. "You can see it. He’s had a really hot past three weeks, and we got to cool him down." The irony? The Raiders’ weakness against the pass—ranked 29th in the league—should help Sanders. But their inability to protect Smith might give Garrett the freedom to dictate the game’s tempo. If Garrett dominates, this game could be over by halftime.
Betting Lines, Analytics, and Contradictions
The oddsmakers are split. FOX Sports and CBS Sports have the Raiders favored by 3.5 and 3 points, respectively. Action Network leans into the Raiders -3.5 at -105, while ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Las Vegas a 65.1% win probability with an average projected margin of 5.8 points. But here’s where it gets odd: the over/under is set at 36.5. That’s low for two teams averaging 19.3 and 18.7 points per game. Yet four straight Browns games have gone over the total. And with both offenses struggling, that number feels artificially high. Could this be a defensive slugfest? Possibly. But the betting public seems to believe the Raiders’ defense will finally show up.
Meanwhile, the moneyline tells a different story: Raiders -162, Browns +136. That’s a 61.8% implied win probability for Las Vegas. But Action Network’s analysts aren’t buying it. "The Browns defense isn’t the same on the road," they wrote. And they’re not convinced Sanders is ready: "He’s not ready for NFL competition at this stage." That’s harsh. But it’s not wrong.
Why This Game Matters Beyond the Record
Both teams are buried in the AFC West and AFC North. A win pushes them to 3-8. A loss? 2-9. Seven games left. The playoffs are gone. But this game isn’t about the standings—it’s about identity. For the Raiders, it’s whether Geno Smith can still carry them. For the Browns, it’s whether Shedeur Sanders is the future—or just another name on the long list of failed prospects.
Historically, the Raiders have dominated this rivalry. They’ve won the last three meetings, outscoring Cleveland by a combined 9 points. That’s not dominance—it’s tight, nerve-wracking football. And this one feels like it could go either way. The weather in Paradise is expected to be clear, 68 degrees, light wind. No excuse for poor play.
What’s Next?
If Sanders wins, he’ll be the first Browns rookie QB to do so since 1995. He’ll be in the same breath as Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel—not for their success, but for the pressure they carried. If he loses? The Browns will likely keep him starting through the end of the season. No turning back now.
For the Raiders, a win could spark something. A loss? It might be the final nail in the coffin for head coach Antonio Pierce’s tenure. With three of their final seven games against playoff contenders, they can’t afford to keep losing. And they know it.
Frequently Asked Questions
How significant is Shedeur Sanders’ first start for the Browns?
It’s historic. No Browns rookie quarterback has won a debut since Eric Zeier in 1995—a 30-year drought of 17 straight losses. Sanders isn’t just trying to win a game; he’s trying to end a generational curse. His performance will shape Cleveland’s quarterback decision-making for the next two years, regardless of the outcome.
Why is Myles Garrett such a threat to the Raiders’ offense?
Garrett has recorded 12.5 sacks in 2024 and has been unstoppable over the last three weeks, with 4.5 sacks and constant pressure on quarterbacks. The Raiders’ offensive line, already decimated by injuries, gave up 16 pressures and four sacks last week. Garrett doesn’t need help—he just needs one step, and he’ll collapse the pocket.
Why is the over/under so low despite both teams’ struggles?
The 36.5-point total seems low given both teams average under 20 points per game. But four straight Browns games have gone over the total, suggesting defenses are struggling to contain even weak offenses. With both teams likely to focus on defense and time of possession, this could be a low-scoring game—but the trend says otherwise.
What does ESPN’s Football Power Index suggest about this game?
ESPN’s FPI gives the Raiders a 65.1% chance to win, with an average projected margin of 5.8 points. That’s based on offensive efficiency, defensive strength, and home-field advantage. But FPI doesn’t account for rookie QB volatility—or the Browns’ desperation. History shows these models often miss emotional, high-stakes games like this one.
How has Quinshon Judkins performed since the Browns’ bye week?
Judkins has totaled just 16.4 fantasy points over two games since the bye, despite averaging 17 touches per game. With the passing game nonexistent, defenses have stacked the box, limiting his big-play potential. He’s still getting carries, but he’s not getting room to breathe—and that’s killing Cleveland’s offensive rhythm.
What’s the historical edge between the Raiders and Browns?
The Raiders have won all three of their last meetings with Cleveland, outscoring them by a combined 9 points. Those games were all close—two by one score, one by two. This isn’t a rivalry defined by dominance, but by razor-thin margins. Sunday’s game could be the next nail-biter in that series.